Take advantage of the Celtics getting slept on, plus other best bets for Wednesday

There was a lot of controversy this week regarding the LIV Golf Tour, which has so many PGA stars playing and the moral issues surrounding the decision. It’s a discussion I completely understand given who the financial backers of the events are and what they hope to achieve by hosting them.

It’s a complex subject, but there’s a part of it that I don’t think is complicated at all. I want to be very clear that if someone is willing to pay me $150 million or $200 million to play at an event, I will take your money. The way I see it, I can be just as easily poor and have a conscience as I can be super rich with a conscience, so why not try to be super rich?

All right, since no one has ever offered me $150 million, I’ll just have to make my money the old-fashioned way.

All Eastern times and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


The hot ticket

Warriors at Celtics, 9 p.m. | TV: ABC

Latest Odds:

Boston Celtics-150

  • key trend: The Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Boston, and if you don’t mark as a dog, you don’t win as a dog.
  • The Pick: Celtics (-160)

I don’t make a habit of betting the moneyline in the NBA, but for the third straight game of this series, it’s the best value. As you can probably figure out for yourself from the selections, if I were to bet the spread tonight I would lay the points with Boston. I don’t think this spread is as big as it should be, but I don’t see much value there.

I’d rather bet on the Celtics to win and not worry about how far they win. The warriors are a popular public play because they are the dynasty with all the recognizable names. That means the better team – and Boston is the better team! – is slept in.

The Warriors ran away with Game 2 thanks to a dominant third quarter. They beat Boston 35-14 in those 12 minutes, but the Celtics beat Golden State 74-72 in the rest of the game. That doesn’t mean anything on earnings, but it does indicate how sustainable this quarter has been for Golden State. Chances are not good that the Warriors can repeat the feat in Boston. You can never rule out a team like Golden State, but at this point we also can’t assume it’s the dominant team we once knew.

This is what SportsLine says about the game: If you prefer to bet on the spread, SportsLine pundit Zach Cimini has made some very good bets on Celtics games this year and he has a spread play for tonight that you should check out.


The picks

MLB

Phillies at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:

Milwaukee Brewers +115

The Choice: Brewer (+115) — While nowhere near the level of #OperationFadeGrom (get better soon, Jacob), Aaron Nola from Philadelphia is another NL East ace that often leads to wild prices in the market. He’s good, but he’s never quite as good as the Phillies price when he serves, considering the rest of the team.

Nola isn’t good enough to justify the Phillies being the favorite against a superior team. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is not a stud. He doesn’t knock out enough people, and he walks too many, but he doesn’t give up much dangerous contact. He is also aided by the superior bullpen. The Brewers-bats have been quiet lately so it’s far from certain, but Milwaukee should be an easy favorite. If we get her as a dog, we take her.

key trend: Milwaukee is 5-1 in the bottom six as an underdog.

Red Sox at Angels, 9:38 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Angels +140

The Selection: Angel (+140) — Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi has had a spectacular season so far. In 63.1 innings, he posted a 3.41 ERA with a strikeout rate that is 18% above the league average. His 3.9% walk rate is 53% better than the league average for starters. But while all that is great, there is one aspect of Eovaldi that makes trusting him as a favorite dangerous.

When not short of bats, he allows for plenty of hard contact. His batting average is 34% above the league average, and his home runs allowed per nine innings is 117% above average. All this makes Angels an interesting game here. They hit a lot and rank 28th in baseball with a strikeout rate of 24.6%, but they also hit things. They rank seventh in the league in HR rate (3.25%) and 10th in ISO (0.161). The Angels are a very lively dog ​​tonight, even if Mike Trout isn’t there (though obviously we’d prefer him to play).

key trend: Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 16 HR this season. Only Miami’s Elieser Hernandez (18) allowed more.

🔒 SportsLine Picks of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model can’t believe what she’s seeing in tonight’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks. It wants you to pound one side.


RBC Canadian Open Top 10

As far as I know, no one gets $200m playing in Canada this weekend, but that doesn’t mean we can’t win $200m by betting on it. Our props are a little barer than usual this week, but that’s due to all the names not playing.

  • Justin Thomas (+110)
  • Rory McIlroy (+125)
  • Shane Lowry (+175)
  • Tyrell Hatton (+275)
  • Chris Kirk (+400)

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