We searched major sports betting sites for accurate prop picks for the 2022 NBA Draft, and while we didn’t come up with anything, we found the best odds for each position and identified the best payouts for each scenario.
The top two picks for Thursday’s draft are still debatable and #3 and #4 seem like virtual locks, but we can get some value from the #5 slot.
Here are our top picks for the exact order of the top five picks in Thursday’s NBA draft.
NBA Draft Exact Order Top 5 Picks
First choice: Smith or Holmgren?
Auburn star Jabari Smith was considered the clear favorite for first overall after the Orlando Magic won the draft lottery, but he’s unbanned in the final few days before the draft. The Magic brought in Chet Holmgren for training on June 17 and some reports suggest Orlando favors the Gonzaga big man over the Auburn forward. The odds are still good for Smith, but they’re shrinking.
Smith’s best 1st place odds are found at PointsBet at -165. If you want him to be first, the next logical bet is Holmgren in 2nd place, which can be found at -159 at PointsBet. Flip these selections to get plus money odds for both players.
Bench on Banchero at #3
At this point, it’s clear that Duke’s Paolo Banchero will be picked third by the Houston Rockets. Regardless of how the first two picks play out, Banchero will be the best remaining player and head to Houston. The Rockets recently traded big man Christian Wood to the Dallas Mavericks to give promising rookie Alperen Sengun a starring role. Any notion of Houston trading for Chet Holmgren seems moot after this move.
The odds of the two picks before and the two picks after Banchero have fluctuated throughout the pre-draft process, and there are no longer any firm favorites. Consider how slim his odds are at -550 (up to -1000 on some books) and you get a pretty good idea of where he’ll be drafted.
Ivey in 4th place
Sure, the Sacramento Kings could draft Purdue star Jaden Ivey with that pick, but there’s a significant chance they’ll move her to a team that needs a point guard, like the Washington Wizards, New York Knicks, or even the Indiana Pacers . Sacramento could pivot and pick someone like Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe or Dyson Daniels, but none of those picks make much sense given what they could get in exchange for the No. 4 pick.
Let’s say the pick is traded, teams don’t move up for any of the three players above. They level up to acquire Ivey. He seems like a safe bet for fourth place.
value in 5th place
The first four picks from Smith, Holmgren, Banchero and Ivey are in, leaving us with a number of options. Murray is the clear favorite to be picked fifth, and the Iowa forward could fit seamlessly if Detroit’s Jerami Grant makes a preseason move. We can risk Ivey here if we think the Kings are sneaky and his odds are +350.
With players like Sharpe (+550), Ben Mathurin (+650) and Daniels (+800) the value is better but if Ivey finishes 5th it means we can take Murray in 4th place with +300. Sharpe is still an unknown after not playing a minute for Kentucky last season, while Mathurin and Daniels continue to rise on draft boards. This is the only real spot in the top 5 that can offer tremendous value.
Banchero is the safest pick of any player in the top 5, so make sure you keep him in 3rd place. Ivey is close behind so I’d bet he goes 4th.
For the first two picks, I’m against Smith-Holmgren, but the best payout comes from Holmgren-Smith since both are plus money.
At #5, keep an eye out for the latest rumors and information surrounding the league in the final run-up to the draft. Daniels has been picking up steam over the past few weeks and his +800 odds are better than Murray, Sharpe or Mathurin. It’s best to hit the fifth pick after betting the first four (using your preferred order of 1-2) as the payout is comparable, if not better, than 1-3, then Murray, then Ivey.
Here are the odds for all of the above situations with a bet of one unit each:
Where to Bet on NBA Draft Exact Order Picks
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NBA Draft Exact Order Picks on 06/20/2022 at 7:59 PM ET.