NBA Draft Lottery 2022: Which team has best odds to win No. 1 pick?

With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now over, most of the 10 teams that did not qualify for the postseason will now focus on the upcoming NBA draft process.

The first part of the drafting process is the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery, which is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, May 17th.

This year sees the fourth draft lottery, giving each of the bottom three teams in the league a 14.0 percent chance of first place in the draft. From there, the odds are ranked in order of worst to best score among the other non-playoff teams.

Who has the best chance of being this year’s top pick?

2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Here are the odds for the 2022 NBA draft lottery.

The Top 4 column represents a team’s chances of receiving one of the top four picks in the NBA Draft, while the #1 Pick column represents a team’s chances of winning the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

(Games currently through April 10)

team recording top 4 #1 choice
rockets 20-62 52.1% 14.0%
magic 22-60 52.1% 14.0%
Pistons 23-59 52.1% 14.0%
thunder 24-58 48.1% 12.5%
pacemaker 25-57 42.1% 10.5%
Trailblazer 27-55 37.2% 9.0%
kings 30-52 32.0% 7.5%
lakers → pelicans 33-49 26.3% 6.0%
spores* 34-48 20.3% 4.5%
wizard 35-47 11.7% 3.0%
pelicans* → Trailblazer 36-46 11.7% 2.0%
curtsy 37-45 7.1% 1.5%
hawks* 43-39 4.8% 1.0%
hornets* 43-39 2.4% 0.5%

*Indicates teams in play-in tournament. Should a play-in tournament team qualify for the NBA playoffs, it would select outside of the lottery.

The Pelicans earned the Lakers’ choice in a 2019 trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.

The Trail Blazers earned the Pelicans’ choice in the February trade that sent CJ McCollum to New Orleans.

History of the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft

Here are the last 10 teams who picked the first overall pick in the NBA draft.

Prior to 2019, the team with the worst record in the league had a 25.0 percent chance of winning the draft lottery. In 2014, the Cavaliers became one of the least likely lottery winners in NBA history, receiving the No. 1 win despite having a 1.7 percent chance of winning.

Year team #1 Choice Probability selection
2021 Pistons 14.0% Cade Cunningham
2020 wood wolves 14.0% Anthony Edwards
2019 pelicans 6.0% Zion Williamson
2018 to sunbathe 25.0% Deandre Ayton
2017 76ers (via Celtics) 25.0% Markle Fultz
2016 76er 25.0% Ben Simmons
2015 wood wolves 25.0% Karl-Anthony-Cities
2014 Cavaliers 1.7% Andrew Wiggins
2013 Cavaliers 15.6% Anthony Bennett
2012 hornets 13.7% Anthony Davis

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