How to Bet This Year’s Man of Mystery

Shaedon Sharpe NBA draft profile

position wing
school Kentucky
Height 6’6″
Age 19.1
class FR
draft over/under
7.5

The 2022 NBA Draft is barely a week away so let’s dive further into this year’s top prospects and look for the betting value.

Today we take a look at this year’s International Man of Mystery, Shaedon Sharpe. The Canadian just turned 19 at the end of May and could be the strongest winger in a draft sorely lacking in high-end options.

Sharpe is a top athlete with great potential but he remains a mystery having not played organized ball for almost a year. Let’s dive into Shaedon Sharpe and remember to take a look at our draft profiles for other top 10 likely prospects:

The great international man of mystery 2022

Sharpe was a relatively unknown player a couple of years ago before bursting onto the scene at the Nike EYBL and Peach Jam tournaments last July and jumping to No. 1 on the boards in early 2023. Sharpe then stepped up a year and enrolled at the University of Kentucky, but never played for the Wildcats (NCAA!), so we haven’t seen him play organized ball in a full year.

Standing 6-foot-6 with a nearly 7-foot wingspan, Sharpe is a top athlete with an outrageous vertical. Sharpe has a highlight role with incredible dunks and silky shots. He trumps as an electric wing goal scorer when everything fits together.

The question, of course, is whether it will ever all come together — and how much it has already done over the past year.

main strengths

Tempting athleticism and size profile

Almost everything about Shaedon Sharpe is unknown or speculative, including an alleged 49-inch vertical camera. Sharpe didn’t jump at Combine, but that would have broken the record held by some guy named Michael Jordan. Anything even close by is incredible pop, especially when charging from two feet.

Sharpe has a huge frame. He’s two inches taller and three inches longer than Anthony Edwards or Jalen Green, closer to the height of someone like Hamidou Diallo. This length and athleticism give him tremendous defensive potential.

Combining that big, strong frame with a quick first step gives Sharpe great potential as an NBA goalscorer. He’s shown good ability to finish through contact, and he’s a good off-ball cutter and an explosive dunker with huge hands. Sharpe is probably more of a 98th percentile athlete than 99.9 (like Ant), but the size and athletic package are enticing.

Unknown, undeveloped top

This isn’t the most exciting design. The big three at the top are well respected, but the design lacks high-end wings and guards. That’s what propels Jaden Ivey’s athletic blast into the top five, and that’s what makes Sharpe so intriguing. Its sporty profile stands out in a class that is sorely lacking.

The unknown is scary, but it’s also what makes Sharpe so interesting when the lottery acquaintances feel more like B-Plus prospects. Remember Sharpe just turned 19 so he’s one of the youngest prospects in the class. youth right above.

On one hand, we haven’t seen Sharpe play organized ball in almost a year. On the other hand, we already know how far Sharpe has come from 2020-2021 as he rose off the radar to #1 in his class. If he can do that in a year, what would he have done for an encore in the last 11 months?

It only takes one team to fall in love with the youth, athletic profile and rise to the league’s most coveted position.

Notable weaknesses

Unknown offensive package

Of course, the unknowns go both ways.

We know Sharpe can score – he led those July tournaments last summer – but the rest of the offensive package remains a real question mark. He’s had some blitzes as a playmaker and passer but still has a long way to go. The shot looks good at NBA range, but hasn’t been tested against the top competition, and the shot selection is…questionable.

Sharpe has good dribbling with a tight crossover and step back mechanic. This grip also remains untested against high-ranked defenders. These kinds of questions are inevitable when you’ve only played high school ball.

Is Sharpe more than just a highlight-roller with a blast and a wet jumper? He could be a long-term project spending some serious time in the G-League before we ever find out.

Questionable intangibles

But wait! There are more… questions, that is.

Sharpe increases his teammates? How does he play in the team context? Can he share the ball? Does he have value off the ball? Is Sharpe trainable? is he a leader How do the intangibles stack up? Will he even try his hand at defense?

There are questions about Sharpe’s engine and efforts. He received mixed reviews while training in Kentucky, although he played well within himself in a team environment with Team Canada. Maybe Sharpe answers those questions in the affirmative with a year in Kentucky—or maybe he doesn’t and slips off the draft boards.

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Shaedon Sharpe #21 of the Kentucky Wildcats.

That is the danger of the unknown. Every year there are high profile high school prospects who disappoint in college. Jaden Hardy entered this year as a highly-rated winger and a likely top-five pick, but is now a first-round rim pick after a disappointing year at G-League Ignite.

What if Sharpe was in Hardy’s shoes? Would he have slipped too, or would he have impressed like Jalen Green did a year earlier and taken his draft position? It’s impossible to know.

Overall Draft Outlook and NBA Prediction

In interviews, Sharpe compares himself to Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. And why not go head-to-head with two of the league’s best shooting guards? I also saw Anthony Edwards and Zach LaVine. I see a little more DeMar DeRozan – rounder, relying on strength and polish to get the score.

Keep in mind that Sharpe may not be the 99.9th percentile athlete, but his strength and physique could make him a smaller forward than a shooting guard. This versatility in size is a bonus. However, it should be noted that this type of player generally takes a long time to develop – if at all.

Maybe Sharpe isn’t Beal or Booker, Ant or Zach or DeRozan. Maybe he’s JR Smith. Or maybe he’s Gerald Green, or Xavier Henry, or one of a hundred other athletic wings whose game was never about athletics and frame.

How to bet on Shaedon Sharpe’s draft position

In the end, it’s important to remember that it only takes one team to fall in love with Sharpe’s unique package of athleticism, size and upside.

That’s why I’m playing on Shaedon Sharpe at -115 under 7.5.

Look, the teams that are near the top of the draft have a reason – they lack star talent. The NBA has always been a star-studded league, and the 2022 draft is dangerously star-free after the top-3.

Players like Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels and Johnny Davis are considered safer high-floor types. But at the top of the draft, teams are usually pushing for upward moves. They swing for home runs, not singles.

Sharpe is one of the few true homer swings in the 2022 draft. For a team looking to start fresh in 6th place like the Pacers, Sharpe is a chance to walk away with the top pick in the draft. Ditto for the No. 5 Pistons, who have been battling for top pick all year only to lose four spots.

The 4th-ranked Kings and 7th-ranked Blazers don’t seem to be a strong match as both appear to be in win-now mode. But that could result in one or both trading their picks for the help of veterans, and a team trading veterans probably wants to go young with an upward play like Sharpe.

In my lottery night ticket draft, I projected Sharpe to the Pacers in 6th place. His positive side gives him as good a chance as anyone in the draft of being picked 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th. He has +155 to top-5 at PointsBet, and he’s +600 to finish fourth or +225 to finish fifth at DraftKings.

wanna go crazy Oklahoma City picks #2, and Sam Presti always does things a little differently. What if Presti’s favorite big man is gone and he wants to swing to the top athletically? Sharpe would fit in well alongside Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s 60-to-1 to take second overall at DraftKings.

With Sharpe’s enticing advantage and potential, it feels like anything is possible.

There’s always one or two players who cause a stir in the week leading up to the draft, firing big boards and pseudo-drafts. Sharpe has the potential to be that guy this year. I’ll take his under 7.5 and go for potential.

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