2022 Midterms: Top 10 States to Watch – June 2022 | McGuireWoods Consulting

The 2022 midterm election began on March 1, 2022 with the Texas primary. Other high-profile primary elections will be held throughout the summer in gubernatorial and senatorial elections in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and beyond. These contests begin on Election Day, November 8, when it’s up for control of the US House of Representatives and Senate, as well as several high-profile gubernatorial elections in key battleground states.

Ten states in particular will play significant roles in deciding the balance of the US House and Senate, shaping the governor’s map going forward.

  • Targeted races of the US Senate, House of Representatives and Governors are held in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
  • Kansas has targeted House and Governor races.
  • New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin have each targeted Senate and governor races.
  • North Carolina will see high-profile, open Senate seat voting and targeted races for the House of Representatives.

McGuireWoods Consulting is closely monitoring the results of the primary elections in these 10 states and will post the significance of the results on our website and social media channels as the election progresses.

  • Georgia
  • North Carolina
  • Pennsylvania
  • Ohio

Georgia interim results update

On May 24, 2022, Georgia voters went to the polls to cast their ballots for candidates to represent their party in November’s general election. Voter turnout was significantly higher for both parties than in the previous midterm elections in 2018.

The Republican gubernatorial primary resulted in a landslide victory for incumbent Brian Kemp, despite former President Donald Trump supporting his challenger, former Sen. David Purdue. Governor Kemp received 73.7% of the Republican vote. His victory sets up a repeat of the hard-fought 2018 race against Stacey Abrams, who ran unopposed on the Democrat side.

In the US Senate race, Herschel Walker easily secured the Republican nomination ahead of a field of other GOP candidates, including state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black. Walker was endorsed by former President Donald Trump shortly after announcing his campaign. This leads to a clash with freshman Senator Raphael Warnock, who was driving to victory in his Democratic primary. This race will be crucial in deciding Senate control.

The re-election of Congresswoman Lucy McBath’s constituency prompted her to run in the neighboring 7th congressional district against fellow Democratic candidate Carolyn Bourdeaux. McBath won the Democratic primary with 64 percent of the vote. She will now face either Michael Corbin or Mark Gonsalves in November’s general election.

In the 6th District, voting for an open seat in Congress resulted in a runoff on the Republican side. Rich McCormick and Jake Evans, who were backed by Trump, entered a runoff on June 21. The winner will face Democrat Bob Christian in November. The winner of the Republican primary will likely be the next congressman from the 6th District.

North Carolina interim results update

North Carolina recently held its primaries for several important midterm elections that are about to decide the composition of the US House of Representatives and Senate. The battleground state had every House up for re-election, plus one of its Senate seats. The redrawing of North Carolina’s congressional districts in 2022 resulted in the addition of 14th seat, with about half of each party leaning towards it and one district said to be heavily contested. Voters went to the polls to nominate their respective candidates in a midterm race poised to decide Senate control. On the Republican side, Trump-backed Ted Budd emerged victorious with 59%. The current congressman defeated challenges from former governor Pat McCrory and former congressman Mark Walker. On the Democratic side was former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, who easily drove to the party’s nomination with 81% of the vote.

The race in North Carolina’s 11thth featured freshman representative Madison Cawthorn vying for another term in Congress. Cawthorn, known for his pro-Trump politics, was narrowly defeated by Chuck Edwards, the three-year state senator, by a 1.5% margin. Edwards had garnered the support of the state GOP and Senator Thom Tills amid several controversies plaguing Cawthorn’s campaign. Edwards should easily win the general election as the seat is sure to be Republican. Another notable race took place in the 13th centuryth District where candidates competed for the vacant seat left by Republican Senate candidate Ted Budd. Bo Hines, a 26-year-old endorsed by former President Trump, won the Republican nomination. Democrat Wiley Nickel secured the nomination for his party with over 50% of the vote in the 13thth District outside of Raleigh. This race is set to be one of the most competitive convention races in the country. In North Carolina’s 4thth District Senator Valerie Foushee defeated Nida Allam, who was supported by Senator Elizabeth Warren. Foushee meets Courtney Gels in the heavily Democratic district.

All eyes are on November’s general election, which is certain to be crucial in determining party control in Congress and the Senate.

Update to Pennsylvania interim results

On May 17, 2022, Pennsylvania voters gave their opinion on the most important primary election ahead of the November election. The Democratic Senate nominee is current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who defeated Congressman Conor Lamb. Congressman Conor Lamb was the front-runner with numerous Democratic endorsements, including mayors of key cities, and had won Trump territory but fell to unconventional politician Fetterman in the primaries in each county. The Republican Senate primary race is headed for a recount between Trump-backed TV personality Mehmet Oz and CEO Dave McCormick. Despite the recount, Oz has maintained that he is the putative candidate. McCormick is also suing over “undated” ballots going to the Supreme Court that could alter the divide between the two candidates. The governor’s race on the Democratic side was an unopposed race for Attorney General Josh Shapiro. Shapiro faces Doug Mastriano, the Republican grand prize winner who secured last-minute approval from former President Trump and garnered widespread support after his campaign to overthrow the 2020 presidential election. Mastriano took most of the state, except for the northeast region around Scranton, which went to Lou Barletta.

Alleghany County State Representative Austin Davis won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, leading in all counties. Davis will face Alleghany County State Representative Carrie Lewis DelRosso, who won ahead of the nine candidates for the Republican race. Pennsylvania’s reshuffle has resulted in 17 seats, 15 of which are incumbents. The 12thth House District will be Republican Michael Doyle against Democrat Summer Lee, who has prevailed in a large field of Democrats hoping to take the seat of resigning Rep. Mike Doyle. Following Rep. Conor Lamb’s decision to run for the Senate, both parties held contentious primary elections, which were won by Democrat Chris Deluzio and Republican Jeremey Shaffer in November.

Ohio interim results update

The Ohio results offer an interesting glimpse into the minds of voters heading into the midterms. The most prominent and high-profile race was the Republican primary for the US Senate, where former author and venture capitalist JD Vance was elected the Republican nominee. Vance attracted a variety of voters with strongholds in the rural and suburban parts of the state. Notably, he received the backing of former President Donald Trump and was backed by a major outside effort funded by Peter Thiel. Both Trump and Theil’s financial backing are factors to keep in mind in the Republican primary. Gov. Mike DeWine kept bipartisan challenges off his right flank.

The Democratic side saw success for the established wing of the party as populist Congressman nominee Tim Ryan easily won the Democratic Senate primary. He won every county in Ohio, barring challenges from the more progressive wings. In the gubernatorial campaign, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley got the nod from Ohio Democrats, dominating her opponent in all areas of the state except for the suburbs of Cincinnati and Toledo counties. Also of note was Congresswoman Shontel Brown’s victory over former Bernie Sanders presidential campaign chair Nina Turner. Establishment Democrats flocked to the zone to support the incumbent congresswoman and ensure Rep. Brown would have the means to win.

The results point to an Ohio general election that will be hotly contested and focused on populist rhetoric and the policies of the Trump and Biden administrations.

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